Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations

Identifying Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations in Germany 1975 – 1998

The Effect of Business Cycle Fluctuations on Import Protection in Selected Developing Countries

In recent decades, theorists proposed the role of domestic components such as interior active groups, policies and macroeconomic indicators on determination of protection policies. In the context of recent studies, this study has investigated the effect of business cycle fluctuations on import protection for selected developing countries in 1995-2011 by using dynamic panel data method. Furtherm...

Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations

We re-examine the evidence on the relationship between credit spreads and economic activity, by constructing a credit spread index based on an extensive micro-level data set of secondary market prices of outstanding senior unsecured corporate bonds over the 1973–2009 period. Compared with the standard default-risk and other financial indicators, our credit spread index is a robust predictor of ...

Sources of Sectoral Fluctuations in Business Fixed Investment

A model of macroeconomic complementarity is used to assess causes of comovement in investment spending across nine sectors of the U.S. economy. It is hypothesized that the irreversibility and uncertainty of investment spending imply a greater role for investment linkages and aggregate factors in investment fluctuations compared with estimates for employment and output. For the average sector, p...

Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Distribution of Consumption

This paper sheds new light on the interactions between business cycles and the consumption distribution. We use Consumer Expenditure Survey data and a factor model to characterize the cyclical dynamics of the consumption distribution. We first establish that our approach is able to closely match business cycle fluctuations of consumption from the National Account. We then study the responses of...